ESPN's Trade Mock-up Fails to Recognize Wilyer Abreu's True Value in Red Sox-Mets Deal
As the off-season draws to a close, the Boston Red Sox have been busy making moves. With Alex Bregman's departure, the focus has been on finding a suitable replacement, and the front office has aimed to bring in Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin. But the real question on everyone's mind is whether the Red Sox will trade one of their outfielders.
Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu have all been mentioned in trade rumors this winter. ESPN's Dave Schoenfield proposed a trade that could potentially shake things up: a straight swap between the Red Sox and Mets, sending Abreu to New York in exchange for Brett Baty. However, this trade proposal undervalues Abreu significantly.
Thankfully, trading Abreu was never part of the Red Sox's plans. His defensive skills and power are unmatched by any other player in Boston's lineup, making this trade with the Mets even more lopsided.
Why Wilyer Abreu and Brett Baty Are Not Equal Trade Assets
Baty is a player who could have been considered by Craig Breslow. He hits from the left side and offers the infield positional versatility the Red Sox are seeking. Baty had a 60-40 split between third and second base and was a net neutral defensively between the two positions. Last season, he posted a 3.1 bWAR, making him a solid contributor.
However, Abreu continued to make strides last season, despite missing time due to injury. He achieved his highest power output, with 22 home runs, 69 RBIs, and a .786 OPS in just 115 games. The 24-year-old also has four years of control, ensuring his long-term value.
The key difference between Abreu and Baty lies in their defensive capabilities. Abreu has won back-to-back Gold Gloves for his outstanding play in right field at Fenway. Last year, he was +8 Outs Above Average (OAA), tied for second-best among right fielders in the MLB, with Fernando Tatis Jr. He is just one behind Corbin Carroll and four better than the next best player in the AL. Abreu's +15 OAA over the last two seasons is tied for the best in baseball.
In contrast, Baty is merely average defensively. While he has been +4 at third base over the last two seasons, the Red Sox prefer Marcelo Mayer to play there. Last year was Baty's first time playing second base at the major league level, and he was -1 OAA, which was worse than David Hamilton, who also hits from the left side. Hamilton is no longer on the team for these reasons.
The disparity in value between Abreu and Baty is clear. The Red Sox should not consider a one-for-one swap with a lesser player. If they trade any of their outfielders, they must aim for a significant return. Abreu is a perfect fit for the Red Sox, and while someone will eventually be a casualty of the outfield surplus, a trade like this should not even be considered.
